Central banks might have been better able to predict the recent inflation surge if they had paid closer attention to money growth, research published by the Bank for International Settlements finds.

Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajšek note past research has found growth in the money supply to be linked more closely with inflation when inflation is high. This is borne out by the data, they say. Pooling data on a sample of countries for 1951–2021 shows the relationship holds only in