There has been debate among Bank of England policymakers as to the scale of damage to the UK economy from the current pandemic, but the broad outlook is both highly uncertain and very gloomy.

Governor Andrew Bailey told a parliamentary committee last week that uncertainty was at a record high, and the downside risk to the economy was “probably one of the largest ever”.

The backdrop makes it hard to say how the economy will evolve, and how many short-run effects will translate into long-term