Poland's business cycle largely a function of EU developments
Developments in the eurozone can explain 50% of Poland's output and interest rate business cycle variance, according to an IMF working paper.
The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure, by Michal Andrle, Roberto Garcia-Saltos and Giang Ho, also finds that about 25% of headline inflation variance in Poland is due to external shocks.
"Headline consumer price inflation features a high share of idiosyncratic variance, also due to changes in
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