Macroeconomics
UK household debt has not yet amplified Covid shock – BoE paper
But the share of households reporting financial difficulties is now rising, authors note
Shadow banking changes macro-prudential trade-offs – BdF paper
Presence of non-banks increases importance of dynamic capital ratios, researcher argues
‘Fiscal distress’ can reverse exchange rate dynamics – BIS paper
Authors emphasise “contingent nature” of exchange rate response to shocks
Inflation expectations rising – NY Fed survey
Survey finds consumers predicting higher prices, but also better labour market conditions
US CPI inflation reaches 5%
Figures follow predictions of “transitory” inflation rises by senior Fed officials
Global recovery is ‘double edged’ for EMEs – Carstens
“Too soon” to say whether inflation will be sustained but markets may overreact, says BIS chief
‘Run it hot’: the risks and rewards of a new policy era
Covid-19 has added impetus to an emerging intellectual shift in policy-making. But central banks face unresolved issues – on expectations, on fiscal policy, and on the capacity of the economy to ‘run hot’
Inequality can worsen recessions – BIS paper
But authors say there is little evidence that income inequality affects consumption in normal times
IMF proposes $50bn plan to ‘end the Covid-19 pandemic’
“Upfront” financing is needed to accelerate vaccinations, say Georgieva, Gopinath and Agarwal
BoE paper highlights link between mortgage limits and consumption
Authors find “new link” between down payment requirements and household consumption
MMT rests on ‘untested statements’ – Richmond Fed paper
Authors warn that modern monetary theory rests on shaky foundations
SF Fed president says inequality could have cost US $2.6 trillion in 2019
Research paper argues opportunity and pay could increase labour output 40% by 2029
IMF adjusts growth forecasts upward
Fund warns of uneven and unequal recovery, but is more optimistic than it was in October
Unemployment set to rise to 8% in 2022 – Irish central bank
Bottlenecks in the jobs market may delay employment’s return to pre-pandemic levels
BoE’s Tenreyro highlights divergence in UK and US policies
US focused on protecting incomes, while UK protected jobs, MPC member notes
Barkin concerned over pandemic ‘scarring’
Richmond Fed chief says disruptions imperil access to jobs and economic growth
Expectations play key role in policy transmission – BoE paper
Authors use high-frequency data to assess importance of term premia and expectations
BoE paper outlines new theory of automation and inequality
Authors highlight “new theoretical mechanism” linking automation to higher wealth inequality
Richmond Fed’s Barkin calls for more vocational training
Tom Barkin says US infrastructure workforce depleted; advocates more immigration
BoE’s Haldane warns against ‘complacency’ on inflation
Chief economist says uncertainty is high but risks are “skewed to the upside”
RBI’s Das: pandemic improved India’s external balance
Boom in software business helped shore up current account and boost RBI reserves, governor says
BIS paper contrasts firm financing in US and Asia
Authors argue market segmentation drives different patterns of bond and loan financing
IMF chief economist has ‘no concerns’ over inflation in US
Biden plan likely to cause 2.25% inflation, within Fed’s framework, Gopinath says
Kenya strikes deal on $2.4 billion IMF package
“Multi-year effort” required to stabilise public finances and boost growth