RBA paper finds it is hard to pinpoint US productivity slowdowns

Break in productivity growth trend in US appears to have happened in early 1970s

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The Reserve Bank of Australia. Photo: RBA
Photo: RBA

US trend productivity growth appears to have undergone a single break point in the 1970s, but the slow response of households and firms made it difficult to spot, according to a research discussion paper published by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The slowdown in US productivity growth: breaks and beliefs, by Rachael McCririck and Daniel Rees, design a model where beliefs on productivity can differ from reality. Although they identify a slowdown in US trend productivity growth by roughly a

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