Real-time macroeconomic monitoring
Research by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve has devised a new way to gauge economic performance.
In the paper, the authors, Borağan Aruoba and Francis Diebold, focus on real activity and its interaction with inflation.
Looking at the recent recession, the authors draw three main conclusions:
• it likely ended around July 2009;
• its most extreme aspects concern a real activity decline that was unusually long but less unusually deep, and an inflation decline that was unusually deep but brief;
•
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