Oil-price forecasts inaccurate
The roller-coaster movements in the international oil market revealed forecasters' inability to predict major trends in the spot oil price, new research from the Bundesbank reveals.
The research shows that oil-price forecasters do not outperform a random-walk forecast. The analysis finds that forecasters see to systematically consider the possibility that oil price will ultimately converge to its equilibrium level and seem to expect a lower oil price than actually occurred most of the time
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economics
Inside the ECB’s upgraded multi-country model
ECB-Base sets the blueprint for a new semi-structural workhorse model of the eurozone
Money matters for macro fluctuations – Fed paper
Working paper says previous research by Schularick and Taylor may have been flawed
Macroeconomists should integrate climate change data into their models, research finds
Paper calls for the use of scientific data on weather and the prediction of extreme climate events
Multiplier of spending cuts bigger than fiscal expansions, paper argues
Impact of austerity is at its peak during recessions, Richmond Fed paper finds
Fiscal stabilisation spurs growth in low fixed-asset sectors - IMF
Those with difficulty raising external funds benefit most from policy, paper argues
Kansas City Fed explores sources of wage dispersion in the US
Paper explores relative importance of “lifetime differences” and “match-specific” factors
Public spending shocks work better when households are confident- paper
Government spending stimulus reduces household confidence as it confirms pessimism regarding economy, paper argues
IMF working paper sees regulation as key driver of decline in foreign lending
Research contends regulatory tightening is behind much of the ‘sluggishness’ in international banking