How to predict global stock returns

Short interest rates and term spreads are fairly robust predictors of stock returns in developed markets, research published by the Federal Reserve finds.

In contrast, the data show no strong or consistent evidence that earnings- and dividend-price ratios can be used to predict returns.

The results are based on more than 20,000 monthly observations from 40 international markets, including 24 developed and 16 emerging economies.

Click here to read the research

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Central Banking? View our subscription options

Register for Central Banking

All fields are mandatory unless otherwise highlighted

Most read articles loading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account

.