An evaluation of World Economic Outlook forecasts

This IMF Working Paper, published March 2006, reviews the performance of its World Economic Outlook forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts.

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large

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