Richmond Fed's Economic Quarterly, Summer 2006

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has published its Economic Quarterly for Summer 2006. The latest issue includes the article 'Inflation uncertainty and the recent low level of the long bond rate'.

This article constructs an empirical measure of uncertainty about short-term inflation forecasts and finds the long bond rate to be positively correlated with this empirical measure over 1984Q1 to 2004Q3. The positive correlation suggests that an increase in uncertainty about short-term inflation

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