Articles by Central Banking staff
Cyber and fintech risk policies rejigged in a few central banks
Departmental structure varies across jurisdictions
Central banks should co-ordinate policy – Minneapolis Fed paper
Policy-makers should consider decisions’ effects on world real rate, authors say
Minority of central banks altered risk functions in past two years
Amendments emanate from factors including technology and climate change
Communicating uncertainty helps curb expectations – BoC paper
But conveying uncertainty about inflation weakens link between inflation and spending plans
Few central banks lack risk management strategies
Two respondents do not have a risk strategy and slightly more lack a defined risk tolerance
GRC systems remain scarce among central banks
Minority of central banks project adoption this year, others aim to upgrade
Most heads of risk management units report to governor or board
Risk management committees are more likely to exist in central banks than chief risk officers
Risk management units are most often centralised
Operational risks are the most covered area across participating jurisdictions
Risk Management Benchmarks 2024 Charts
Take a deep dive into the Risk Management Benchmarks charts, which have just been released for 2024.
Banknotes: October to December 2023
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
People: October to December 2023
A round-up of central bankers in the news and on the move during the past three months
Climate change increases inflation risks – ECB paper
Both level and volatility of inflation could increase due to rising temperatures, researchers say
Fed research looks at second-round effects of oil price inflation
Late 2022 oil price rally could cause inflationary pressure as late as mid-2025, paper finds
Central banks adapt forecasts with financial sector and other changes
Host of changes to modelling incorporate financial channels, nuanced expectations and more
Inflation forecast errors moderate after surge in 2022
But growth forecast errors are higher in 2023, data shows
High income central banks allocate most time to research
Research economists are more numerous and are allotted more research time in high income jurisdictions
Administrative data tops list as alternative data source
Research and forecasting remain key areas of application for central bank economists
Economists’ rate of access to centralised data services still below par
Central banks in high-income jurisdictions still have more access
Most heads of research are responsible for sign-off on research
Peer-reviewed papers remain most-used metric for measuring research success
Central banks average 11 working papers over the past year
Just over a quarter of central banks run research blogs
Central banks prioritise inflation dynamics research
Middle income institutions tend to have much widest research interests
Time series model is top tool for forecasting and research
Use of machine learning models for research purposes surges year on year
Economic growth and inflation are most-forecast variables
Private debt, commodity prices and market interest rates rank as laggards
Most new economic staff hired as fresh graduates
Recruits from private sector, academia make up smaller portion of new hires