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BoJ research estimates impact of Olympics on growth
Authors suggest Tokyo Olympics will boost Japan’s annual real GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points from 2015-2018, as tourism and construction investment picks up
Regulators need better grasp of electronic trading, BIS committee says
Rapid growth of electronic trading in fixed-income markets demands more sophisticated regulatory analysis, Markets Committee says; new risks may be developing
Lagarde nominated for second term as IMF head
Christine Lagarde is backed by UK and Germany for a second term as managing director when her first expires in July; the International Monetary Fund launches the selection process
FCA officials grilled on second comms backlash
MPs accuse FCA of failing to recognise perceived importance of dropped bank culture review, leading to strong public backlash; chief executive says approach to communication will be reassessed
Monetary policy less effective than structural reform, Davos panellists argue
Structural reform is more effective than monetary or fiscal policy in current conditions, Axel Weber and Raghuram Rajan agree; Weber foresees four Fed rate rises but thinks markets disagree
BoJ regional research divisions see ‘moderate’ recovery
Nine regions report the economy has ‘continued to grow’, often at a ‘moderate’ pace, in the past three months; some note impact from emerging markets slowdown on exports and production
IMF paper seeks to capture complexity of financial development in new index
Research presents six ‘subindices’ measuring the depth, accessibility and efficiency of financial institutions and markets, which are rolled into an ‘overall measure of financial development’
ECB paper quantifies spillover from sovereign to corporate credit risk
Research studies direct spillover effects using credit default swaps and data on 226 firms from 15 European countries in aftermath of first Greek bail-out
Iranian banks may reconnect to Swift as sanctions lift
Reconnection ends four-year exclusion from the global payments messaging service and should make sending international payments considerably less costly
US, China trends put Hong Kong in potential tough spot, warns IMF report
Housing prices have tripled since 2008 and could face correction as result of slowdown prompted by outside pressures
Bundesbank paper explores interbank market functionality during crisis
The German interbank market did not fail, per se, in the 2007-8 financial crisis, a Bundesbank discussion paper argues; bank fundamentals determined ability to roll over interbank positions
French governor weighs up ‘disruptive effects’ in card payments market
François Villeroy de Galhau discusses ‘main trends’ influencing card payments market, including ‘new solutions, new behaviours and players, new regulations’
Fewer counterfeit banknotes withdrawn in Portugal in 2015
Statistics released by Bank of Portugal reveal a drop in the number of counterfeits withdrawn from circulation last year; the €20 remains the most frequently faked denomination
ECB's Mersch considers hurdles to single payments area for cards
European payment card schemes and processors must address issues of standardisation, security and interoperability to create an effective single payments area, Yves Mersch says
Bank of Italy outlines downside risks as inflation falls
Annual HICP inflation fell to 0.1% according to December estimate, just below eurozone average; Bank of Italy warns that international situation poses ‘significant risks’ to European recovery
Central banks struggling to exit ‘confused period’, economists say
The financial crisis forced a regime change on central banks, raising challenges to independence, analysis and policy tools, which have yet to be fully resolved, say panellists in Brussels
Paper finds positive impact from Dodd-Frank swap rules
Compulsory trading via swap execution facilities has boosted liquidity and cut trading costs in the market for interest rate swaps, working paper published by BoE finds
New York Fed president keeping eye on expectations
William Dudley expects inflation expectations to increase if the economy keeps growing at an above-trend pace, but any deviation could be cause for concern
FCA review paints picture of institution rattled by setbacks
Independent review of UK watchdog reveals low morale and risk aversion in the face of comms scandal and loss of chief executive Martin Wheatley, plus fears of government meddling
Polish governor says inflation will rise slower than expected
Inflation will not turn positive in January 2016 as previously expected, governor Marek Belka says; monetary policy council keeps policy rate unchanged
IMF staff say tighter macro-pru measures ‘may be warranted’ in Slovakia
IMF staff have called for Slovakia’s central bank to boost its oversight of housing lending and to consider raising the counter-cyclical capital buffer for the country’s banks if growth continues
ECB's Cœuré wants ‘corrective arm’ of EU tool used ‘forcefully’
European Central Bank executive board member stresses importance of sustainable rebalancing in the eurozone; wants to see potential of macroeconomic imbalance procedure realised
BoJ paper: inflation expectations do not match target
Study of ‘dissonance’ in forecasts between economic agents and the central bank finds people only believe the BoJ will hit its target in the short to medium term – after that, inflation drops
BoE paper seeks to improve forecasts with adaptive model
Using an adaptive model in conjunction with heavy-tailed t-distributions allows authors to deliver ‘substantial improvements’ in forecasting inflation