Output gap
IMF paper searches for deeper insight into the output gap
Working paper proposes method of estimating and decomposing output gaps; inflation found to have low weight
BIS paper urges inclusion of financial cycle in output gap calculation
Working paper warns ignoring the financial cycle when calculating the output gap can cause policy-makers to overlook unsustainable output movements
BoE MPC member makes case for more stimulus
David Miles presents model that suggests monetary policy is probably still too tight in the UK; says more QE would be one way to address this, but other easing strategies could also work
Malawian paper considers impact of output gap on inflation
Research published by Reserve Bank of Malawi uses three different measures to estimate output gap; finds only a weak link between business cycle and inflation
Poland paper analyses asymmetric policy
National Bank of Poland study reveals asymmetric central bank policy for inflation rates and economic activity; shown to have strong preference for inflation avoidance
Central Bank of Colombia paper finds delayed monetary policy responses
Working paper develops new models of output gap and neutral interest rate; argues interest rate changes by central bank lag behind movements in output
IMF paper finds stronger and more complex fiscal rules following crises
Working paper compiles dataset of national and supra-national fiscal rules; suggests rules were strengthened after crises in the 1990s and after the financial crisis
BoE paper studies information in sticky and flexible prices
Working paper studies the usefulness of sticky and flexible prices in showing firms’ estimates of the output gap and inflation expectations
BoE paper quantifies output gap estimation errors
Bank of England discussion paper models accuracy of output gap estimations based on OECD data; argues that absolute size of revisions to estimates does not improve over time
Riksbank research highlights significance of output gap for policy makers
Swedish central bank working paper explores output gap as a tool for measuring economic activity; concludes that policy makers should focus more on output gap in forming monetary policy
IMF paper measures the natural rate of interest
Fund study says the transformed money demand and observed output gap provides the best information about the natural interest rate
Measuring output gap in export-oriented economies: IMF paper
Fund study assess methods to measure output gap in countries facing non-traditional demand pressures
Time for central bankers to reconsider the output gap
Policymakers in advanced economies must place more weight on imported inflation, while those in emerging markets must monitor domestic price pressures more closely, Stephen Lewis argues.
Look to global output gap: St. Louis Fed’s Bullard
St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard says policymakers should look to global output gap for true measure of domestic inflation
Fiscal policy bolsters monetary policy: Central Bank of Turkey paper
Central Bank of Turkey study shows sound fiscal policy can help achieve active monetary policy
Bank’s Bean points to problems in measuring spare capacity
Bank of England deputy governor Charles Bean says difficulty in measuring spare capacity creates imprecise data
Riksbank: inefficient labour markets distort growth
Riksbank study shows inefficiencies in output are related to the inefficient allocation of labour in the United States
IMF: inflationary risks minimal during recessions
Fund study shows advanced countries are at low risk of inflationary pressure when economy is running under capacity
St Louis Fed: FOMC largely ignored Phillips curve framework
A St Louis Federal Reserve study on Fed transcripts shows the FOMC was split on whether to use the Philips curve in monetary policy decisions
Boston Fed on expectations, output and inflation
Research from Boston Federal Reserve shows low marginal cost presses down on inflation even when central bank’s explicit inflation target is clearly communicated and understood