Growth
ECB researchers suggest refinements to macro stress tests
Working paper identifies a number of factors in addition to growth that determine the rate of non-performing loans; authors say this could allow for more accurate stress testing
Serbian director hints at possible easing in coming months
Head of National Bank of Serbia’s research department sees inflationary pressure easing and the Serbian economy returning to growth; says this may prompt cuts in the near future
Bullard revels in greater global certainty
St Louis Fed president says uncertainty is falling around the globe; should benefit growth in euro area, emerging markets and US
King insists economy must rebalance
Governor says Bank of England can still contribute to recovery but is running up an ‘ever steeper hill’; inflation report downbeat on growth and inflation prospects
National Bank of Denmark expects recovery
Central bank says domestic demand and GDP growth will improve in 2013; existing unemployment should not have lasting impact
IMF board split on quota reform options
Disagreement among IMF executive board members over whether more emphasis on emerging markets is needed, with ‘considerable support’ for increasing weight of GDP in quota formula
Canadian study links financial development and income volatility
Working paper finds financial development can dampen the impact of technological shocks on the economy
Central Bank of Ireland drops growth forecast for 2013
Irish central bank lowers growth expectations in 2013 in response to weaker global demand; targets increased productivity in domestic economy
Majority support an inflation target, poll finds
Almost two-thirds of participants in poll say inflation-targeting central banks should stick with current policy; Mark Carney lauds the unconventional measures a flexible framework allows
Latvia’s Rimsevics predicts solid year for the economy
Governor of the Bank of Latvia expects inflation to remain moderate and growth, while slower than 2012, to show one of the fastest rates in the European Union
ECB working paper highlights success of LTROs
Researcher finds three-year long-term refinancing operations significantly boosted European growth prospects and eased lending conditions
IMF predicts chequered growth performances in 2013
Updated World Economic Outlook forecasts wide disparities between countries’ growth performances in the next year; overall estimates revised down since October
Bank of Spain charts economy’s downward acceleration
Data for fourth quarter show economy continuing to spiral downward, with contractions in growth and demand gaining pace
IMF sees southern European free-fall begin to slow
Mission chief for Greece says painful adjustment proceeding ‘apace’, although questions raised over potential €9.5 billion funding gap; Fund praises ‘impressive policy effort’ in Portugal
Fed’s latest Beige Book finds post-hurricane rebound
States that bore the brunt of Hurricane Sandy report improved conditions in all but the hardest-hit areas, as ‘modest or moderate’ growth continues; unemployment remains stubborn, however
Sri Lankan central bank sounds positive note for 2013
Monetary policy review forecasts moderation in inflation and robust economic growth; committee votes to hold repo rate at 7.5% and reverse repo at 9.5%
Irish deputy governor says economy has ‘little safety margin’
Stefan Gerlach says while growth may show a modest recovery this year, even a small shock to market confidence could complicate an exit from the IMF programme
IMF paper analyses ‘prolonged decline’ in Asian investment
Paper finds investment is suffering from the financial constraints facing non-tradable sector; proposes widening forms of credit available to small and medium-sized enterprises
Pakistan’s Anwar presents plan for financial system growth
Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan gives 10-point plan for growth in the financial system to boost the economy and improve the ‘potency’ of monetary policy
Bank of Korea foresees long road to recovery
Economic outlook report predicts sluggish narrowing of Korea’s negative output gap; central bank keeps rates on hold
IMF paper identifies trends in fiscal profligacy
Working paper analyses dataset of countries’ fiscal performance over time, finding an imperfect response to changes in the underlying economy
Bhutan governor gives banking sector assurances
Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan 2011–12 annual report reveals ongoing liquidity crisis; inflation increases to 13.5%
Belgian bank survey reports gloomier outlook
National Bank of Belgium survey finds improved financial market conditions are not feeding into the real economy, as respondents again revise down 2013 growth forecasts
Restrictions on Sri Lankan banks relaxed
Foreign exchange trading limits on Sri Lanka’s commercial banks relaxed by central bank as country pursues ‘second wave’ of growth