Emerging markets
BoE turns attention to contagion from emerging markets
UK banks’ exposure to emerging markets is a cause for concern and will be integrated into 2015 stress test scenario, BoE says in financial stability report
Bank of England launches redesigned financial stability report
Central bank aims to convey a clearer picture of the risks facing the UK economy with a shorter, clearer and less repetitious financial stability report
Carney says regulations may have gone too far
It is time to ‘take stock’ of financial regulations to ensure they are not imposing unintended consequences, Bank of England governor says
IMF paper finds foreign investor base crucial for EM sensitivity to shocks
Working paper finds emerging markets that rely more on international funds and global banks are more sensitive to ‘global push factors’ such as US monetary policy
BIS researchers find evidence of macro-pru and monetary policy cancelling out
Study of macro-prudential policy in South-east Asia shows policies work best when used in same direction; paints complicated picture including ‘some evidence’ of spillovers
Jeffrey Frankel argues for NGDP targeting by EMs
Monetary economist says targeting nominal GDP could allow emerging and developing countries to more credibly establish a nominal anchor
Central banks face weight of expectations in sub-Saharan Africa
The art of central banking has changed dramatically in frontier markets. Monetary policy, financial regulation, capital flows and exchange rate are now centre stage, writes Louis Kasekende
Governments should work to promote ‘e-commerce’, UN report says
Research presented at the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia outlines policies governments should pursue to harness the benefits of e-commerce
Colombian paper extends Bernanke research on asset price bubbles
Paper delivered at the BIS extends Bernanke and Gertler’s result that central banks should not lean against asset bubbles, finding the conclusion still holds in a small open economy
NBER paper challenges Rey’s monetary policy dilemma
Authors find evidence to support the continued existence of a traditional monetary policy trilemma, casting doubt on Hélène Rey’s theory that the trilemma has broken down
BIS economists say investor behaviour key to understanding EM challenges
Hyun Song Shin and Philip Turner consider implications of shift in financial intermediation for emerging markets; part of wider Banque de France review on the subject
Emerging markets close in on Basel III completion
Latest Basel Committee progress report shows most jurisdictions have moved significantly closer to full Basel III implementation, with emerging markets making particularly rapid progress
Cross-border claims end upward rise, BIS data shows
Latest international banking statistics show global cross-border claims in slight decline after three consecutive quarters on the rise; claims on non-banks rise strongly however
Fed’s Claessens challenges banking Balkanisation theories
Theories emphasising the collapse in cross-border credit since the financial crisis fail to capture a ‘secular trend’ towards emerging markets, says Fed senior adviser
‘Unbanked’ numbers fall 20%, World Bank study finds
First update to the Global Findex database finds 700 million adults worldwide became new account holders since 2011, but two billion remain without access to basic financial services
Financial stability risks on the rise, IMF warns
Global financial stability report warns risks have increased and ‘rotated’ in the past six months, with emerging markets now more vulnerable
IMF paper proposes refinements to potential output estimation
Researchers use an adapted ‘multivariate filter’ that aims to improve upon other methods of estimating potential output, although they admit the result is probably only the ‘least worst’ option
IMF calls for demand boost to avoid 'new reality' of lower potential
IMF World Economic Outlook contains echoes of Larry Summers' view that the world's economies need shock therapy to avoid secular stagnation
FSB adds new emerging market members
Five new institutions join Financial Stability Board as part of efforts to improve emerging market representation; Glenn Stevens takes over as standing committee chair from Agustín Carstens
BIS paper weighs effectiveness of FX intervention strategies
Intervention to reduce volatility or to lean against exchange rate movements each come with distinct costs and benefits, working paper finds
CNB paper questions strength of ‘border effect’
Studies using outdated methodologies overestimate the impact of national borders on trade, authors say; effect is stronger in emerging markets
RBA research suggests options for IMF to overcome governance issues
Analysis of constraints on IMF actions suggests seeking backup from other international organisations could add to political clout, but quota reform remains a problem
Book notes: Emerging Africa, by Kingsley Moghalu
Sub-Saharan Africa is no basket case, but neither is it poised to follow China and India on their meteoric economic rise, Kingsley Moghalu argues in his forthright book
Ukrainian hryvnia drops 30% after central bank action
Currency in freefall after National Bank of Ukraine scraps subsidised forex auctions and simultaneously increases its key discount rate by 550bp