Macroeconomics
BoJ raises policy rate to highest level since 2008
Policy-makers raise inflation forecasts and signal further rate rises
Fed’s anecdotal survey correlates with economic data – research
Study says Beige Book’s “soft” data is “actually quite firm”
PBoC suspends government bond purchases
China's central bank moves after “persistent excess demand” causes yields to hit record lows
PBoC to issue record amount of bills in Hong Kong
Central bank to auction 60 billion yuan of bills in territory amid weakening renminbi
Bigger cities do not mean much greater growth – study
Benefits of agglomeration are “surprisingly little”, NBER paper argues
Higher tariffs would hurt US allies as well as its foes – research
However, research says country would be largely shielded from impact of geopolitical fragmentation
PBoC vows to cut reserve requirements and interest rates
Officials pledge to keep monetary policy “moderately loose” and support capital markets
China holds benchmark lending rates
One- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged after authorities pledge to loosen policy next year
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – executive summary
The benchmark drills into model design features as well as staffing, research and AI
Economics Benchmarks 2024 report – making models work
The benchmarks this year include more granular details on key model design features
Stiglitz offers alternatives to standard theories of economic fluctuations
Nobel prize winner argues that endogenously driven variations are key to understanding economies
China shifts to ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy stance
Officials also vow to pursue “more proactive” fiscal stance next year
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks
Rate hikes affect manufacturing economies more – Fed study
Authors find similar effects across eurozone and in US at county level
Nature loss is key metric for supervisors – ECB board member
Elderson says central banks need to develop better ways to measure its impact on financial stability
The past and future of BIS economics
The monetary and economic department has become an influential force in central bank economics. Claudio Borio looks back over 37 years at the institution and Hyun Song Shin looks to the future
Bailey: UK must stay open for business
BoE governor calls for bridges to be built with EU countries and others
Minneapolis Fed chief shares concerns about tit-for-tat tariffs
Kashkari points to heightened risk of inflation but insists US economy is “strong”
Bofit study projects continued slowdown in China
Group’s latest forecast says economy needs to be rebalanced in favour of consumption
The long and short of it: from ‘new normal’ to ‘old ordinary’
Arnab Das, global economic counsellor and macro strategist at Invesco, draws on macro history to try to put the present in perspective and navigate the future. This thought leadership commentary draws on policymaker and reserve manager discussions…
Global component of inflation surged in pandemic – research
Dallas Fed authors say international factors exert greater influence than they did pre-Covid