Research
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Oct 2004
According to the firms surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, October 2004, activity in the region's manufacturing sector continued to improve. In this months survey the participants were asked about their plans and expectations for…
Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, September 2004
The Deutsche Bundesbank's September 2004 Monthly Report finds that according to the latest data, industry is still on an upward trend. Following weaker figures in June, both new orders and output showed a further clear seasonally adjusted rise in July,…
BoJ paper on deflationary traps
This Bank of Japan discussion paper provides a theoretical overview of monetary and fiscal policy with the potential to engineer an exit from a deflationary trap, which the author defines as sustained deflation in the presence of zero interest rates.
Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report, Oct 2004
The Bank of Canada released its October 2004 Monetary Policy Report on 21 October. The latest report says the Canadian economy has grown faster than was projected in last April's report and the July update, largely because of a surge in exports.
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, October 2004
The Bank of Japan released the English version of its October 2004 monthly report on 15 October. In the report the bank said exports and industrial production have been on a rising trend, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The report also said Japan's…
ECB Monthly Bulletin, October 2004
The European Central Bank published its October 2004 Monthly Bulletin on Thursday 14 October, saying that record oil prices are threatening to slow the pace of the economic recovery in the dozen nations sharing the euro.
Norges Bank, Economic Bulletin, October 2004
Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, published its October 2004 Economic Bulletin on Thursday 7 October. The Bulletin includes the article "Inflation targeting - some theory with main focus on practice" by the Governor of Norges Bank, Svein Gjedrem…
SARB Financial Stability Review, September 2004
The South African Reserve Bank has published the September 2004 edition of its Financial Stability Review. In its latest bi-annual report the Reserve Bank says house price growth has been driven by "improved economic fundamentals".
St Louis Fed's Regional Economist, October 2004
The Quarterly Review of Business and Economic Conditions, The Regional Economist, October 2004 edition from the St Louis Fed includes the article "U.S. Stays Out of the Way of Entrepreneurs" which says for those starting a business in this country,…
Resolving large financial intermediaries: Update
In this updated article, the authors examine issues surrounding the possible failure of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Finding parallels between resolving insolvent large banks and insolvent housing enterprises, the authors suggest improvements to the…
Philadelphia Fed Business Review, 3rd Quarter 2004
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has published its regular Business Review for the Third Quarter 2004. In this issue President Santomero talks about 'Banking in the 21st Century'. There is also an article 'Managing the Recovery in Uncertain Times…
The rise and fall of American inflation
In this Atlanta Fed Working Paper the authors estimate a model that allows temporary gaps between a true expectational Phillips curve and the monetary authority's approximating nonexpectational Phillips curve. Their estimates indicate that policy makers…
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Sep 2004
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released the September 2004 issue of its Bulletin on 6 October. The September issue includes two speeches recently given by the Governor - one on the banking supervision framework and the other on the New Zealand property…
Reviewing US monetary policy in disinflation era
This Bank of Japan Working Paper reviews the experience of US monetary policy from 2000 to shed some light on issues regarding the effectiveness of monetary policy in a low inflation era. Result shows that the observed financial market response to the…
Central Bank of Ireland Financial Stability Report
The Central Bank of Ireland has published its first stand-alone Financial Stability Report. The Report focuses on the stability of the Irish financial system with a special emphasis on the banking sector.
The U.S. new Keynesian Phillips curve
The authors of this Bank of Canada Working Paper examine the evidence that the inflation dynamics in the United States can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). They find that the empirical evidence for the real marginal cost is…
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Autumn 2004
The Bank of England released its Quarterly Bulletin Autumn 2004, on 24 September. Declines in UK house prices may have a smaller impact on consumer spending than in the 1980s, even after households racked up more than a trillion pounds of debt ($1.8…
SARB, Quarterly Bulletin, September 2004
Inflation pressures in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region are expected to subside somewhat on account of sustained policy discipline and improved food-supply conditions in most parts of the subcontinent, the South African Reserve…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, August 2004
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.19 in August, down sharply from an upwardrevised +0.53 in July. The drop in the monthly index was due to smaller positive contributions from production-related data and, to a lesser extent, housing and…
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Sep 2004
According to the firms surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, September 2004, activity in the region's manufacturing sector continues to improve. Although the indicator for general activity fell from its August reading, indicators…
Resolving US financial intermediaries
In the Atlanta Fed Working Paper "Resolving large financial intermediaries: Banks versus housing enterprises", the authors examine issues surrounding the possible failure of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Finding parallels between resolving insolvent large…
HKMA Quarterly Bulletin, September 2004
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has published the September 2004 issue of its Quarterly Bulletin. The latest issue includes an article "International reserve holdings - Are financial centres different?" - examining the relationship between reserve…
Counterfeiting: A Canadian perspective
The author of this Bank of Canada Working Paper considers the economic issues that counterfeiting raises. He proposes an innovative method for estimating the quantity of counterfeit currency in circulation and develops estimates for Canada for 2001.
Bank of England Inflation Attitudes Survey, Aug 04
The Bank of England's August 2004 quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey was published on 20 September. Asked about the future path of interest rates, 73% expected rates to rise in the next 12 months, little changed from 71% in the May survey.