Research
Does excess liquidity pose a threat in Japan?
This IMF Discussion Paper examines the effects of quantitative easing implemented by the Bank of Japan since early 2001, looking specifically at the impact on inflation expectations and real asset prices.
IMF paper on cb losses in selected countries
The IMF Working Paper "Central bank losses and experiences in selected countries" April 2005 says that under normal circumstances, a central bank should be able to operate at a profit with a core level of earnings derived from seigniorage. However,…
SARB Financial Stability Review, March 2005
The South African Reserve Bank has published the March 2005 edition of its Financial Stability Review. In its latest report the SARB says the resilience of the global financial system improved further during the second half of 2004, mainly as a result of…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Mar 2005
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March 2005 was +0.11, down from +0.22 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that comprise the index made positive contributions last month, according to the CFNAI.
Link between central bank independence & inflation
This IMF Working Paper published on 21 April reviews central bank legislation in 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the 1990s. Using panel regressions, the authors find a negative relationship between legal central bank independence …
The econometrics of macroeconomic modelling
Four researchers who are affiliated with the Research Department in Norges Bank have published a book on empirical macroeconomic modelling. The book has its origin in empirical research on inflation which has been carried out in Norges Bank over the past…
ECB Monthly Bulletin, April 2005
The European Central Bank published its April 2005 Monthly Bulletin on Thursday 14 April, saying there are "no clear signs" that economic growth in the twelve nation euro zone is set to accelerate as record oil prices weigh on business conditions.
St Louis Fed's Regional Economist, April 2005
The Regional Economist, April 2005 edition from the St Louis Fed includes the article "The trickle-down effect of Basel II" which says the new banking accord could make survival for some regional and community banks more difficult. Also included is "So…
IMF Global Financial Stability Report, Apr 2005
The International Monetary Fund's Global Financial Stability Report for April 2005 says bigger than expected rises in long-term interest rates, or a sharp fall in the dollar, pose risks to a financial system that is at its most resilient in a long time.
FOMC Minutes, 22 March
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's 22 March meeting published on Tuesday 13 April revealed FOMC members saw higher inflation risks and debated whether to dump language about sticking to a "measured" pace of rate increases.
Norges Bank's conference on monetary policy 2005
On Thursday 7 April Norges Bank held a conference on economic models at central banks. Approximately 70 individuals participated in the conference.
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, April 2005
The Bank of Japan published the English version of its April 2005 monthly report on 8 April. In the report the BOJ left its monthly assessment of the nation's economy unchanged from the previous month but said exports are starting to pick up, and…
Switzerland's growth deficit: A real problem
A recent paper by Ulrich Kohli of the Swiss National Bank "Switzerland's growth deficit: A real problem - but only half as bad as it looks" says the anaemic growth performance of Switzerland over the past quarter of a century is a cause for concern.
Bank of Canada, Business Outlook Survey, Spring 05
The Bank of Canada's Spring 2005 Business Outlook Survey reports that businesses are more optimistic about the economic outlook than in the winter survey.
Philadelphia Fed Business Review, 1st Quarter 2005
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has published its regular Business Review for the First Quarter 2005. In "Preparing for the 21st Century Economy," President Anthony Santomero talks about two trends he deems to be of particular importance.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Mar 2005
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published the March 2005 issue of its Bulletin. The first article discusses the issues around foreign exchange market dysfunction and the rationale for holding reserves. It sets out the framework that the Bank used to…
SARB's Quarterly Bulletin, March 2005
The South African Reserve Bank released its March 2005 Quarterly Bulletin on 30 March. In the Bulletin the SARB said higher oil prices and buoyant domestic demand are likely to put a floor under South African inflation in the near-term, but other factors…
The real effect of banking crises
This IMF Working Paper says banking crises are usually followed by a decline in credit and growth. It asks whether this is because crises tend to take place during economic downturns, or if banking sector problems have independent negative effects on the…
Before & after the Bank of England's independence
This Working Paper investigates how the increase in transparency brought about by the Bank of England's operational independence has changed the way in which markets react immediately after economic announcements.
Bank of England Inflation Attitudes Survey, Mar 05
The Bank of England's February/March 2005 Inflation Attitudes Survey asked about the future path of interest rates, with 56% expecting rates to rise in the next 12 months, only slightly down from the 57% recorded in November.
Transparency, disclosure and the Federal Reserve
This ECB Working Paper published on Wednesday 30 March assesses the change in Federal Reserve policy introduced in 1999, with the publication of statements about the outlook for monetary policy (and later about the balance of risks) immediately after…
IMF paper on the Stability and Growth Pact
This IMF Working Paper, Implementing the Stability & Growth Pact, analyses some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Greater "procedural" flexibility in the Pact's implementation may improve welfare, it…
The politics of central bank independence
The authors of this New York Fed Staff Report propose a theory to explain why, and under what circumstances, a politician endogenously gives up rent and delegates policy tasks to an independent agency, in this case the central bank.
The ECB faces a fiscal fight with its governments
There hasn't been much evidence of stability in the Stability and Growth Pact, according to this article, and now it isn't even a pact any more. Expect to see a damaging fight between the ECB and its member states, which the whole European economy will…