Research

Global factors in the Great Moderation

Research from the Bank for International Settlements claims that relative price adjustments taking place in the global economy are important sources of the lower rates of inflation which have been observed in recent decades.

Fiscal-policy models are flimsy

A paper by four academics from universities and institutions in the US and Europe including Stanford's John Taylor notes that renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy, but cautions that these…

The three epochs of oil

Research by two prominent economists using the longest oil-price series available has uncovered significant trends in the price of crude.

The best methods for estimating trend inflation

Trend inflation forecasts estimated by the exclusion method and the principal component technique have strong predictive power on future changes in headline CPI or PCE inflation, new research from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority posits.

ECCU very sensitive to US conditions

The business cycles of Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) economies are very sensitive to changes to the United States economy, research from the International Monetary Fund finds.

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