Research
The ‘Great Moderation' shows no sign of ending, Spanish paper finds
The great recession did not mark an end to the great moderation whose low volatility could be hampering a recovery, according to a new paper
ECB economists design early-warning guide to trigger macro-prudential intervention
Working paper isolates key indicators to tell policy-makers when to use macro-prudential measures, and which ones to use
Irish economists estimate property debt overhang on SMEs
Central Bank of Ireland researchers find a minimum of 20% of SMEs have direct exposures to property debt, which makes them more likely to default
One in 10 eurozone households spend more than they earn, Bundesbank paper finds
Households with female, young, or divorced heads have harder time making ends meet, but ‘rather confident in the possibility to get funded through informal lending channels'
Portfolio flows to emerging markets make asset prices volatile - IMF paper
Working paper unpicks domestic pull factors versus global push factors, finding the latter more powerful in determining portfolio flows
Korea needs more women and young people in work, paper finds
Labour market ‘duality' and low youth and female employment are holding back growth, according to paper written by Bank of Korea and IMF economists
Capital lured to EMs by interest rate differentials, CBRT paper finds
Inflation and global liquidity other important drivers of international capital flows post-crisis, but countries' growth rates have less effect
Limits to foreign lending would cut bail-out risks, Banque de France paper claims
Paper examines why countries bail each other out, and argues a tax on lending to foreign countries would stop investors betting on an implicit guarantee
Unconventional monetary policy has heightened medium-term risks to banks, IMF paper finds
No evidence that unconventional monetary policies has ‘helped' banks, according to paper; finds deterioration of medium-term bank credit risk in US, UK, and the eurozone
IMF paper finds Latam growth likely to slow even if commodity prices remain elevated
Growth over next half-decade expected to be 150bp lower than during boom years; need for 'ambitious structural reforms' to secure 'medium-term growth'
Southern African economies appear to be converging
Bank of Botswana economists find SADC countries are moving in the same direction, but probably more by accident than by design
Firm-level characteristics affect monetary policy transmission, Czechs find
Working paper finds firm-specific characteristics like size, age, collateral and profit, affect the way in which monetary policy changes are reflected in the external financing decisions of firms
Paper examines optimal monetary policy for wages and hours worked
Firms tend to pay too little for too many hours, economists argue in ECB-published paper; monetary policy should not target inflation too strictly, they say
Global imbalances still on the rise, IMF paper shows
Though efforts have been made to cut current account imbalances since the financial crisis, ‘stock imbalances' continue to grow, find Milesi-Ferretti and Lane
IMF paper finds ‘robust' relationship between exchange rate flexibility and external adjustment
Using a data set of bilateral exchange rate regimes, study revives Milton Friedman's argument that a flexible rate facilitates external adjustment
US and Europe more vital for Australian trade than thought
Australian goods being exported to western markets indirectly via east Asia, skewing statistics, according to paper using ‘complementary' estimates of value-added trade
IMF paper finds ‘puzzling' result from capital controls
Controls to stop capital inflows deflect them to other countries, the paper finds, but are rarely met with copycat measures in recipient countries
New York Fed study finds Puerto Rico emigration has not led to 'brain drain'
Island's population has been falling for a decade due to emigration, but share of college graduates has increased as low-skilled workers are leaving in greater numbers
Minneapolis Fed paper challenges New Keynesian ‘liquidity trap'
New model challenges dominant view of post-crisis monetary policy, claim Minneapolis Fed economists
Ireland working paper examines effect of ECB policy on interbank repo market
Research by economists from Central Bank of Ireland, New York Fed and Barclays Capital finds some substitution effect between official auctions and repo market activity
IMF paper considers corporate governance reform in Japan
IMF researchers say corporate governance reform could help ‘unstash the cash’ held by Japanese firms and improve the economy’s growth potential
Bundesbank economists propose indicator for price competitiveness
Working paper published by the European Central Bank develops new indicator for international price competitiveness in an attempt to provide a tool for policy analysis
Japan's ageing population will have deflationary effects, IMF paper finds
Deflationary effect will hit other advanced economies too, but can be countered through monetary policy and structural reforms, IMF economists write
Shrinking BoJ balance sheet will take longer post-QQE than in 2006
Economist says unwinding the BoJ’s asset purchases will take longer when QQE finishes than it did at the end of QE in 2006, because this time it is buying bonds with longer maturities