Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
Deflation tends to de-anchor expectations – BIS paper
Deflationary episodes seem to render expectations lower and more backward-looking
Interest rate risk could be seed of next crisis – economists
Financial markets may have underestimated the persistence of low rates, and regulations have amplified the threat, say Srichander Ramaswamy and Philip Turner
A dangerous unknown: interest rate risk in the financial system
Urgent action is needed to tackle the little-understood build-up of interest rate risk in the global financial system; macro-pru tools still inadequate to tackle the issue
BIS’s Carstens calls for cryptocurrency clampdown
Bitcoin has become “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster”
Banks not necessarily more opaque than other firms – BIS paper
Study compares stock returns of those with insider knowledge against the wider market
Misinterpreting commodity price swings can be damaging – BIS paper
Whether movements are down to supply shocks or changes in global demand matters for policy, and mistakes can be procyclical when central banks act together
Carstens: regulators should not forget the non-banks
Banking standards may be largely complete but there is still work to do on non-banks and fintech, the new BIS chief says
Focus on implementing Basel III, central bankers say
Stefan Ingves stresses need for full and timely implementation, while Andreas Dombret says the time for lobbying is over
Better data needed amid rise of non-banks – BIS study
Survey of post-crisis banking structure finds sturdier core banking system, but risks shifting to periphery, raising the need for better surveillance
BIS paper: unconventional policies may have depressed natural rate
Economists find shifts in estimates of the natural rate co-move with unexpected changes in unconventional policy
Economists need to better understand macrofinancial links – BIS paper
Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose call for “new generation of models” among other research to solve ongoing puzzles
BIS paper explores effects of global factors on inflation
Authors find impact of global factors is mainly temporary, but the effects appear more significant for countries without long-established inflation targets
Macroeconomics suffers from blind spot, says Borio
Misallocated resources can explain a large part of recent productivity slowdowns, but thinking in aggregate terms obscures this, says BIS economist
People: Peru’s Velarde bags BIS job; Belsham gets second term on BoE committee
People: Peruvian governor succeeds Poloz as Council for the America’s chair; David Belsham gets second term at Prudential Regulation Committee; and more
Low rates push investors to seek risk abroad – BIS paper
Authors find that low rates at home drive risk-taking overseas and the effect accelerates as rates approach zero
BIS paper asks what makes emerging market banks profitable
Both bank-specific and economy-wide factors affect banks’ profitability, authors find
Economists are misinterpreting ‘Triffin dilemma’, says BIS paper
Michael Bordo and Robert McCauley argue there was nothing certain about the collapse of Bretton Woods, but Triffin’s successful prediction led others to mistakenly reapply his theory
2017: The year in review
Over the past year, the global economy regained some strength, and some central banks began to return their policy to normal; but it was not all smooth sailing
BIS issues new ‘streamlined’ stress test principles
Banks have made significant advances in stress testing since financial crisis, Basel Committee says; issues new ‘guidelines’ that focus on stress test evolution
Amended NSFR accommodates extraordinary monetary policy
Basel Committee issues its first technical amendment to the net stable funding ratio, to allow flexibility in the treatment of liquidity-absorbing operations
Monetary regimes drive real rates, BIS paper finds
Claudio Borio et al study data going back to 1870 in search of factors pushing down real rates
Macro-pru tools helped offset taper tantrum – paper
Macro-prudential measures helped reduce the impact on cross-border lending growth, say authors
Early asset purchases much more successful – BIS paper
Authors find effectiveness falls over time as the shock wears off, questioning the value of long-running quantitative easing
Basel III changes set to create big winners and losers
Capital hit for G-Sibs ranges from 28% drop to 43% jump, quantitative impact study reveals