Economics Benchmarks 2024 – executive summary
The benchmark drills into model design features as well as staffing, research and AI
The past year has seen major reviews of central bank modelling frameworks, most famously the review into the Bank of England’s (BoE) forecasts by former Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. The Czech National Bank (CNB) also carried out a significant review of its framework. In both cases, the reviews found the existing models wanting, and called for a range of improvements, to both model governance and design features.
On governance, Bernanke and the CNB reviewers both highlighted the importance
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More on Economics
Economics Benchmarks 2024 report – making models work
The benchmarks this year include more granular details on key model design features
Share of economics departments with data unit rises
Web scraping and administrative data are top alternative sources for economists
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks
Economists commonly use AI for data analysis
Lower-middle income countries, Africa and Asia-Pacific report lower use of AI
Economists least likely to research impact of AI
Inflation dynamics retains position at top of the rankings
Peer-reviewed journals still top gauge for research impact
Smaller teams more likely to consider conference presentations as assessment tool
Inflation and GDP growth forecast errors decrease further
Forecast errors used widely for key model adjustments
One in five main models has endogenous financial sector
Benchmark highlights array of methods central banks use to model financial sector