Fed paper presents model of Covid-19 trade-offs
Data-driven model implies lockdown can work if a vaccine can be developed quickly enough
A US Federal Reserve working paper presents a model of the epidemiological and economic trade-offs inherent in the Covid-19 pandemic, showing how lockdowns can be effective under certain assumptions.
In the paper, Mark Bognanni, Doug Hanley, Daniel Kolliner and Kurt Mitman describe a model that captures both the progression of an epidemic and the economic costs of fighting it. They say theirs is the first paper to set the model in the context of data on health, mobility and employment.
The
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