Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling

Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high

Silvana Tenreyro
Silvana Tenreyro
Photo: Bank of England

In remarks today (July 15), the Bank of England’s Silvana Tenreyro revealed some of the efforts central bank economists have made to model Covid-19’s impact on the UK economy.

Tenreyro – an external member of the monetary policy committee – said the BoE was making use of a boom in economic research that tries to merge epidemiology and macroeconomics, so-called epi-macro.

A key tool in this literature is the SIR model, which breaks the population down into “susceptible”, “infected” and

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