Balance of payments data is affected by late revisions to direct investment equity income, which alter the figures significantly, according to a paper published by the National Bank of Denmark mid-February.

The authors, Jannick Damgaard, Mathies Lau Friis Laursen and Robert Wederkinck, find that a combination of past profitability and consensus figures for change in expected private consumption growth provide a better forecast of direct investment equity income than other models, which rely