Economics
Southern African economies appear to be converging
Bank of Botswana economists find SADC countries are moving in the same direction, but probably more by accident than by design
Global imbalances still on the rise, IMF paper shows
Though efforts have been made to cut current account imbalances since the financial crisis, ‘stock imbalances' continue to grow, find Milesi-Ferretti and Lane
US and Europe more vital for Australian trade than thought
Australian goods being exported to western markets indirectly via east Asia, skewing statistics, according to paper using ‘complementary' estimates of value-added trade
Ghana requests IMF bailout to bridge fiscal deficit
IMF deputy director will send a team to Accra early next month to initiate discussions; Ghanaian cedi is world's worst performer so far this year
IMF paper finds ‘puzzling' result from capital controls
Controls to stop capital inflows deflect them to other countries, the paper finds, but are rarely met with copycat measures in recipient countries
Fed survey says 40% of US households still struggling to make ends meet
A third of respondents said they were ‘somewhat or much worse off' than before the financial crisis, while a fifth are spending more than they earn
New York Fed study finds Puerto Rico emigration has not led to 'brain drain'
Island's population has been falling for a decade due to emigration, but share of college graduates has increased as low-skilled workers are leaving in greater numbers
Bundesbank economists propose indicator for price competitiveness
Working paper published by the European Central Bank develops new indicator for international price competitiveness in an attempt to provide a tool for policy analysis
Japan's ageing population will have deflationary effects, IMF paper finds
Deflationary effect will hit other advanced economies too, but can be countered through monetary policy and structural reforms, IMF economists write
Preferential treatment distorts banks' demand for government bonds
Transaction-level data suggests comparatively beneficial liquidity and capital regulation is incentivising banks to swap other bonds for sovereign debt
Spanish economists see short-run benefits in structural reforms
Working paper published by Bank of Spain says product and labour market reforms could boost output and employment now and in the future
Broadbent says credible policy blunts current account deficit threat
UK current account deficit is historically large but is not threatening growth, new Bank of England deputy says, thanks in part to macroeconomic policy framework
Weidmann encourages UK to stay in EU
Deutsche Bundesbank president says the UK and continental Europe are 'more than the sum of their parts' and have both benefited from the European Union
IMF paper attempts to pin down output gap
Members of the Fund's European department build new models incorporating financial frictions to estimate the output gap in the US during the Great Moderation and beyond
ECB paper finds rich to be richer than previously thought
ECB working paper uses rich lists to estimate wealth concentration, overcoming 'differential non-response' problems; finds wealth even more concentrated than traditional surveys show
IMF economist analyses effect of floods and storms on Caribbean debt-to-GDP
Both storms and floods have a negative effect on growth, IMF economist finds, but only floods affect debt in the natural disaster-hit region
Review finds Belgian CPI still ‘diverges’ from HICP
National Bank of Belgium’s latest economic review analyses the recent changes in the methodology underpinning CPI, and demonstrates why it remains different from HICP
Australians might be better off renting, paper finds
If people expect house price growth to slow relative to the past 60 years, they might be better off renting, according to a paper published by the Reserve Bank of Australia
Spanish economists devise system for detecting risks to budget forecasts
Working paper published by the Bank of Spain presents a new ‘toolkit’ to monitor the government budget in real time; authors say it will help protect state’s reputation
Forecasting of ECB and New York Fed became ‘noticeably worse’ during crisis
Researchers at the ECB and New York Fed examined forecasting performance of their central banks; finding they suffered during the crisis, but not more than external parties
European researchers examine impact of capital inflows on long-term interest rates
Bank of Portugal working paper says the foreign accumulation of eurozone bonds may have led to “excessive risk-taking” at a global level by depressing interest rates
Price competitiveness strong in the US but weak in China, Bundesbank paper finds
Proposes ‘simple productivity approach-based' method for calculating a ‘consistent set of multilateral indicators' of price competitiveness
Atlanta Fed blog links inequality to rising education
Economic commentary published by the Atlanta Fed finds the growth in educational attainment in the US in the past decade contributed to rising levels of inequality
Financial crisis could cut long-term productivity by hitting spending on R&D
Bank of England working paper investigates the possibility that the drop in the UK's productivity since the crisis is due to the higher relative cost of investing in innovation