Monetary Policy
FOMC split over inflation forecasts, minutes show
Participants expressed concern that low inflation this year might reflect not only transitory factors
Japan’s ineffective efforts at monetary easing
A study of the natural rate of interest indicates the Bank of Japan’s QQE may not have been as accommodative as claimed, Sayuri Shirai argues. The failings appear to be related to effectiveness, rather than scale
Fed policy has had bigger impact on global liquidity since 2009
A 25bp rate cut causes a cross-border lending growth to rise of two percentage points, versus 0.8 before the crisis, researchers find
Danish central bank critical of fiscal easing plans
As growth accelerates and inflation rises the economy risks overheating, the central bank says
More communication may hamper monetary policy, paper says
Independence and bigger MPCs may convey confusing messages and provoke forecast errors
ECB starts publishing corporate bond purchase data
Move increases transparency, but data contains few surprises, analysts say
ECB taper unlikely to upset major European equity investors
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is boosted by its €200 billion investment in European stocks
Disagreement over inflation expectations weakens monetary policy – Bundesbank paper
Research uses data from Fed’s survey of professional forecasters from 1968 to 2017
Theory of inflation dynamics is not good enough, warns Tarullo
Former Fed governor says economists have “almost paradoxical” mix of scepticism towards and reliance on shaky concepts
RBI eyes unwelcome turnaround in India’s economy
Central bank on hold as growth slows and inflation ticks up sharply; Urjit Patel notes heightened volatility and geopolitical tensions
Developing states can improve inflation targeting – IMF paper
The research finds a bias in favour of results in line with the academic consensus
US economy would have performed better without rate hikes – Kashkari
Minneapolis Fed president says Fed should not raise rates until 2% inflation target has been reached; removal of accommodation has negatively affected inflation expectations
Central banks should take transparency further, economist argues
Dissenting MPC members can hide behind vagueness and “verbiage”, says Tony Yates
Don’t underestimate the Fed’s balance sheet unwind – Fischer
Stanley Fischer offers advice to colleagues in his final scheduled speech before leaving in October: “never say never”
Senior figures disagree over future of central bank mandates
Independence for central banks has been a success and is vital for carrying out mandate; Otmar Issing says ECB should not act as a substitute for politics
Debelle calls for more thought on financial stability independence
RBA deputy says financial stability needs its own intellectual framework; panellists warn independence likely to face tougher challenges ahead
‘Substantial’ accommodation still needed in euro area – Liikanen
Bank of Finland's governor says improved growth and investment prospects have failed to affect inflation; underused capacity expected to be taken up “gradually”
Banks ‘still groping toward’ macro-pru transparency – Eichengreen
Central bank governance expert says central bank transparency is getting better around the world, although New Zealand, Argentina and some Central American institutions could make improvements
Bank Indonesia under pressure from falling inflation
Bank Indonesia cuts rate for the second consecutive month; policymakers in Indonesia have been struggling to hit ambitious growth targets
Yellen stresses commitment to ‘gradual’ rate hikes
Fed chair examines possible factors behind disappointing inflation results, but concludes gradual rate hikes are still warranted
Atlanta’s Bostic ‘sceptical’ about low inflation factors
President of Atlanta Fed is not sure technology and competitive pressures are to blame for prolonged below-target inflation