In the speech 'Current Issues for the Global Economy' given on 27 October Malcolm Edey of the Reserve Bank of Australia said recent developments entitle us to be more confident about forecasts of ongoing recovery than was the case a few months ago. Some risks that loomed large in the first half of the year - the uncertainties about Iraq, the spike in oil prices, the SARS outbreak - have dropped away. And in the largest economy, the US, there are good indications that the expected pick-up in