Australia's Stevens on economic forecasting

Glenn Stevens, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, gave a speech to the Economic Society of Victoria on August 17 on "The thankless task of economic forecasting". He discussed the accuracy of forecasts, how to make forecasts useful, and potential methods of improving the way forecasts are used.

Mr Stevens said that while economic forecasts are not all that good, they are nevertheless better than a coin toss. Absolute forecasting errors have reduced in the last ten years compared

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