IMF: currency crises studies inaccurate
An IMF paper published on 1 October finds that econometric measures do a poor job of identifying currency crises, as they only pick up explosive market fundamentals.
Currency crises are difficult to predict, Robert Flood, Nancy Marion and Juan Yepez, the paper's authors, write. This could be because studies in this area choose the wrong variables or models, or adopt the wrong measurement techniques.
Flood, Marion and Yepez, use a Monte Carlo experiment to evaluate the structural, logit and
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