Labour market
Masaaki Shirakawa on lessons from crisis and how to reform central banks
The former governor reflects on a turbulent 40 years at the Bank of Japan, and considers how central banks might face up to the challenges of the future
Labour market changes key to inflation – BIS’s Shin
Central banks may face “race against time” to prevent wage-price spiral, says Hyun Song Shin
Alternative data fuels central bank research
Important research areas include monetary transmission, exchange rates, digitisation, SMEs and climate change, against the backdrop of Covid
Pandemic spurred use of alternative data
Advanced and emerging market economies prioritise different applications
Low unemployment rate will be learning experience for RBA – Lowe
Central bank maintains it will not raise rates until 2024, unless forecasts turn out “very differently”
Furlough uncertainty delayed BoE rate hike – Bailey
Roughly a million people were still using the job protection scheme when it ended, governor says
BoE surprises with rate hold as inflation forecasts reach 5%
Market-implied path for interest rates rises to 1% by end-2022
Unemployment falls across North America
US recovery is weaker than expected, while Canada reaches pre-pandemic jobs levels
Empirical economists win Nobel Prize
Card, Angrist and Imbens share prize for work on labour markets and causality
Larry Summers on stagflation risks, lessons from Delphi and never-ending ‘punch’
The former US Treasury secretary speaks about fiscal ‘overexpansion’, Fed/Treasury debt discord, the pitfalls of ‘unknown unknowns’ and central bankers ‘unable’ to remove the ‘punchbowl’
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees
BoE paper links debt and labour supply
Households behave differently depending on their wealth and debt, paper finds
Bailey puzzles over UK labour market signals
A lot of people are still out of the labour market, but unemployment remains low
BoE cuts UK growth forecast
Inflation likely to stay above 4% for first half of 2022 amid supply constraints and energy squeeze – MPC
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”
Link between US labour costs and inflation has weakened – ECB paper
US can sustain robust labour markets without risking inflation outbreak, researchers say
The ‘golden age’ of central banking has passed
Central banks face multi-faceted challenges and weakened autonomy amid highly polarised inflation expectations
Bank of England holds interest rates and asset purchases
MPC wants evidence spare capacity is being reduced but Haldane votes for lower asset purchases
Inflation expectations rising – NY Fed survey
Survey finds consumers predicting higher prices, but also better labour market conditions
Kuwaiti central bank orders local national quota for bank managers
Central bank says 70% of management of local banks must be Kuwaitis by 2023
SF Fed president says inequality could have cost US $2.6 trillion in 2019
Research paper argues opportunity and pay could increase labour output 40% by 2029
Unemployment set to rise to 8% in 2022 – Irish central bank
Bottlenecks in the jobs market may delay employment’s return to pre-pandemic levels
BoE holds interest rates as MPC members differ over risks
MPC points to signs of stronger recovery but also uncertainties around household spending
BoE paper outlines new theory of automation and inequality
Authors highlight “new theoretical mechanism” linking automation to higher wealth inequality