Research
Colombian paper probes predictive power of expectations
Central Bank of Colombia study investigates the accuracy of exchange rate expectations during the past nine years; finds discrepancy between short and long term
BoE review estimates OTC margin requirements could hit $800bn
Bank of England review models the effect of OTC reforms on margin requirements; anticipates slow adaptation
Contractionary monetary policy increases wealth spread, says Philadelphia Fed paper
Philadelphia Fed study considers impact of contractionary monetary policy shocks on different segments of the population; finds imbalance between the wealthiest and others
IMF paper examines eurozone current account imbalances
IMF study investigates causes of current account deficits in some eurozone countries; weighs up internal and external factors
Sarb paper establishes new inflation measure
South African Reserve Bank research reveals alternative measure of core inflation; designed to remove elements of ‘noise’
San Francisco paper studies effect of crisis on potential output
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco study examines US output potential; distinguishes between long-running trends and consequences of financial crisis
IMF paper finds regulation will not damage economy
Research released by IMF finds banks can adapt to regulatory reforms without hurting the economy; higher lending rates are a price worth paying
Monetary easing does not prompt crisis recovery, says BIS paper
Paper published by the Bank for International Settlements finds monetary easing does not help economic recovery following a financial crisis downturn; deleveraging produces more positive effects
Spanish paper finds companies swap bankruptcy for foreclosure
Research by Bank of Spain analyses the country’s low bankruptcy rates; finds mortgage debt is used as an avoidance measure
ECB communicates ‘intensively’ on fiscal policy, says paper
Research report compares central banks' communication on fiscal policy; ECB the most active commentator
IMF paper examines driving factors behind reforms
Study examines whether IMF training or financial assistance is more correlated with structural reforms
ECB paper analyses factors driving portfolio flows
Working paper studies time-varying drivers of capital flows to emerging markets; finds investors are more sensitive to local factors during market stress, while extreme stress can cause a panic
IMF loans impact sovereign bonds, says Bank of Spain paper
Spanish study finds countries that receive IMF funding issue less sovereign debt, and with shorter maturities; effect is stronger under particular conditions
ECB paper analyses euro stability measures
ECB research assesses eurozone stability measures; says a European-wide framework for recapitalising large and systemic banks is still needed
BIS paper examines link between low growth and recessions
Bank for International Settlements research studies relationship between low growth and recession in the US; finds some growth patterns can forecast a sharp decline in GDP
Fed paper examines Chinese response to rate shocks
Federal Reserve study explores the response of the People’s Bank of China to foreign interest rate shocks; says liberalisation of foreign currency policies could reduce central bank’s costs
ECB paper finds US foreign bondholdings rooted in past
ECB research examines the link between past and present levels of foreign bonds held by US investors; finds similar investment patterns for both
IMF working paper critical of short-term austerity measures
IMF study suggests debt burdens should be addressed longer-term when economies are in expansionary mode; short-term austerity may do more harm than good
IMF paper dissects shadow banking bailouts
IMF study examines how bailouts were used in the shadow banking system during the crisis; suggests the risk of future bailouts remains
Netherlands Bank paper trials ban on commission
Study examines the effect of banning commission payments for financial advice; finds customers’ behaviour changes depending on how aware they are of advisers’ incentives
IMF paper warns fiscal policy is not sufficient to counter capital surges
Working paper finds countercyclical fiscal policy would not have been able to fully counter large capital inflows into many countries in emerging Europe before the financial crisis
Bank of Spain paper develops model of market volatility
Researchers produce measure of volatility able to cope with ‘vast’ panels of data; find model performs better than others that use shorter time horizons
IMF paper analyses how commodity prices impact inflation
Working paper investigates how international commodity prices affect domestic inflation; finds governance and autonomy are central bank’s biggest tools to combat shocks
French research examines impact of credit rating changes
Banque de France study examines impact of a change in a country's credit rating on investment markets; downgrades have significantly larger effect on spreads