Claudio Borio
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
Borio and co-authors attack concept of natural interest rate
BIS paper sets out a model in which “monetary policy hysteresis” can do lasting damage to the economy
BIS’s Borio warns of ‘troubling’ negative yields
BIS quarterly review highlights new peaks in negative-yielding debt and examines CLO risks
BIS says theory behind EME policy must catch up with ‘reality’
Situation is similar to the adoption of inflation targeting in the early 1990s, says BIS annual report
Euro’s ‘heft’ has been underappreciated – BIS’s Borio
Several roles of the euro as an international currency are underappreciated, says Borio
Borio questions Larry Summers on ‘secular stagnation’
Two teams of economists present fresh evidence for divergent views of low real rates
Markets still in thrall to central banks – BIS
But some apparent anomalies may be signs of healthier market function, says Claudio Borio
BIS’s Borio calls on economists to take money more seriously
Money is too often explored in isolation, or ignored completely, the BIS economist says
More trouble likely after ‘bumps’ in past quarter, says BIS’s Borio
Corporate debt markets are looking overstretched and could trigger problems; term spread may not be best indicator of recession, special feature finds
The perilous road to normality
Many central banks are starting to tighten policy, but their room for error is limited and their final destination unclear. What more can they do?
Return of volatility helps shatter market illusions – BIS’s Borio
Quarterly review focuses on recent market gyrations; researchers outline new early warning indicators for financial stress
Macroeconomics suffers from blind spot, says Borio
Misallocated resources can explain a large part of recent productivity slowdowns, but thinking in aggregate terms obscures this, says BIS economist
Monetary regimes drive real rates, BIS paper finds
Claudio Borio et al study data going back to 1870 in search of factors pushing down real rates
Fed hikes have created ‘paradoxical’ easing – BIS
Review draws parallels between current episode and “Greenspan conundrum” of mid-2000s
Central banks may be thinking wrongly about inflation – Borio
BIS economist says inflation may not always and everywhere be a monetary phenomenon, which could help explain why the natural rate is so low
BIS study flags ‘missing debt’ as exuberance spreads
Strong macroeconomic backdrop is encouraging risks to grow, BIS warns; new and updated datasets launched
Piecing together a financial theory of stagnation
Ideas presented at recent BIS annual meetings reveal an emerging framework that explains how the financial system may be dragging down the real economy; Hélène Rey was the latest to contribute
BIS urges policymakers to exploit ‘window of opportunity’
Financial cycles are getting close to turning in many economies and central banks and governments must make sure they are prepared, the BIS warns in its 2017 annual report
Little evidence to support ‘global slack’ thesis, ECB paper argues
Researchers say global spare capacity is not increasing as an influence on eurozone inflation
Fed paper warns on helicopter money risks
Tool appears much less powerful when less realistic elements of the New Keynesian framework are removed; other options could work better, authors say
Tackling the ‘human agency’ problem
Central banks are readying their communication strategies to mitigate a populist backlash against their post-crisis policies
Interest rate effects weaker at low levels – Borio and Gambacorta
Supply of loans becomes less responsive to policy rate movements when interest rates are already very low, likely due to impact on bank profits, authors say
Review urges BIS to curb dominance of ‘house view’ in research
Panel including UK’s Charlie Bean finds BIS research has at times been “genuinely path-breaking” but should give economists more room to differ from the house view
Central banks may be partly to blame for low real rates, says BIS’s Borio
Ever-bolder attempts to raise inflation could push down on real rates, generating little inflation but worsening the risk of instability, Claudio Borio says