FOMC members’ narratives add value to projections, finds paper
Both staff and FOMC members' projections aid forecasting, refuting Romer and Romer
Federal Open Market Committee members’ evaluations improve GDP, unemployment and inflation forecasts, says new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
The paper – The FOMC versus the staff: do policy-makers add value in their tales?, published August 30 – contrasts with an earlier study by Christina and David Romer of the University of California at Berkeley.
The Cleveland Fed researchers – Ilias Filippou, James Mitchell and My Nguyen – examined nearly 40 years of text from Fed
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