Using professional forecasters’ expectations improves the accuracy of models forecasting eurozone inflation, a working paper published by the European Central Bank finds.

In Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts? Marta Bańbura, Danilo Leiva-Leon and Jan-Oliver Menz examine how different forecasters approach this task.

The authors look at the accuracy of a wide range of time series models that attempt to forecast eurozone inflation. These models use different types