Fed forecasters now less optimistic on growth – San Fran Fed paper
Forecasters have eliminated “overoptimism” bias in recent years, researchers find
Federal Reserve forecasters have adjusted their methodologies in recent years to eliminate “overoptimism” present after the 2008 crisis, research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco finds.
Since 2017, Fed forecasters have reduced how often they revise earlier growth predictions and the revisions that are made tend to be upward changes, Kevin Lansing and Winnie Yee find.
The authors examine the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections report issued four times a year, from 2008
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