Credit spreads’ limited use as short-term predictors – paper
Researcher examines accuracy of three sets of credit spreads
A working paper published by the Bank of Estonia examines the accuracy of several measures of credit in predicting short-term changes in the real economies of 10 eurozone countries.
In Credit Prices vs. Credit Quantities as Predictors of Economic Activity in Europe: Which Tell a Better Story?, Alfred V Guender presents three sets of credit spreads and a measure of total outstanding credit.
The first measure is the spread between the cost of borrowing for non-financial corporations from
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