FOMC forecasts perform better in short- than long-term, Fed paper finds
Greenbook forecasts from 1997–2008 did better at short horizons
Around a hundred economists, research assistants and other staff work on forecasts ahead of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, but it is not clear they substantially outperform simple models, according to research published by the Federal Reserve.
The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee, by Andrew Chang and Tyler Hanson, tests ‘Greenbook' forecasts from 1997 to 2008 against a trio of simple models that are generally taught to graduate economics
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