Inflation report forecasts tend to be right, research shows
IMF paper finds inflation forecasts are usually borne out in reality
Forecasts made in central bank inflation reports tend to be borne out in what actually happens, according to an IMF working paper using a "novel methodology" to rate the inflation reports of a sample of central banks.
In Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?, authors Aleš Bulíř, Jaromír Hurník and Kateřina Šmídková transform the prose in inflation reports into numerical values, which they then compare with inflation outcomes – including breaking them down into
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