A Philadelphia Federal Reserve paper, published on Wednesday, says Phillips curve-based models are most effective at forecasting inflation when the economy is weak.

Michael Dotsey, Shigeru Fujita and Tom Stark, the paper’s authors, use the test results developed by Giacomini and White to examine the forecasting ability of Phillips curve models. The authors note that while the Phillips curve has long been used as a foundation for forecasting inflation, numerous studies indicate that during the