An IMF paper published in October shows international business cycles are largely driven by financial shocks emanating from the United States.

Tamim Bayoumi and Trung Bui, the paper's authors, note the recent financial crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, especially shocks originating from the United States.

Bayoumi and Bui estimate a structural vector auto-regression using pre-crisis data to measure the spillover effects across major advanced country