Exits from heavily managed exchange rate regimes

This IMF Working Paper finds that in the past 25 years or so, almost all exits to more flexible exchange rate regimes were followed by a depreciation of the exchange rate, and that exits were about evenly divided between disorderly and orderly cases.

A logit econometric model, indicates that the general circumstances of orderly and disorderly exits have been broadly similar: an overvalued real exchange rate, falling reserves, a difficult fiscal position, and high world interest rates. Well

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