Inflation in the US is likely to fall below the Fed’s 2% target due to the disproportionate role played in recent price increases by factors not related to the economic cycle, says research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

After years below target, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index has consistently remained over 2% for several months in 2018. However, most of the increases recorded by the index “can be attributed to acyclical factors and are not due to a