BIS paper seeks hints that Swiss franc floor was about to break
Measures derived from option prices indicate credibility fell before floor was removed
A paper seeking to identify signs the Swiss franc floor was about to break in 2015 has found there may have been some hints – but forecasting the full exchange rate movement is difficult.
The working paper, published by the Bank for International Settlements, derives probability densities for future exchange rates from option prices at the time. The result indicates that while break probabilities never significantly exceeded 50%, the credibility of the floor of Sfr1.20 to the euro did decline
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Monetary Policy
Central banks to maintain independence despite threats – panel
Top central bankers discuss Trump, AI and why they plan to ignore IMF on rate cuts
More volatility calls for greater agility – Schnabel
ECB official says new tools, including negative rates, may be needed in more disruptive age
Return to floating rate a ‘medium-term goal’ – NBU official
Head of monetary policy says hryvnia still being used as “means of savings” during war
Ruling party loyalist to become new BoT chair
Appointment of Kittiratt Na-Ranong will increase concerns about erosion of bank’s independence
US debt sustainability and central bank balance sheet dynamics
Higher interest rates are putting pressure on central bank profits and may increase supply of government debt, especially during quantitative tightening. Will central banks be required to issue bonds?
Covid stimulus did not trigger US inflation surge – NBER study
Working paper says QE and fiscal stimulus had minimal impact on price rises
Paper offers solution to EME monetary transmission puzzles
Price and exchange rate conundrums are interconnected, authors find
GCC central banks follow Fed by reducing rates
Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain opt for 25bp cuts, while Qatar loosens by 30bp