A San Francisco Federal Reserve paper published in January argues that researchers may be using economic models that underestimate the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events.

Hess Chung, Jean-Philippe Laforte, David Reifschneider and John Williams, the paper's authors, identify a number of factors that may have led researchers to not fully account for the effects interest rates at the zero lower bound have on macroeconomic outcomes.

Chung, Laforte, Reifschneider and Williams note