Rises in economic uncertainty explain a considerable amount of changes in the eurozone’s economic activity, a working paper published by the European Central Bank says.

In Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for the euro area, Alina Bobasu et al build on the methodology proposed in a 2015 paper by Kyle Jurado et al. They estimate measures of uncertainty for the member countries of the eurozone itself and 15 of its key trade partners from 2000 to 2019.

They base these measures on