Commodity price dip ‘likely to persist’ – paper

Bank of Canada research examines how global real economic activity can be used to model commodity prices

Photo of an oil derrick at sunset

A working paper published by the Bank of Canada has concluded low real commodity prices are “likely to persist”, potentially constraining policy options for commodity producers and exporters.

While attempting to understand how variations in global real economic activity can be used to model commodity prices, Lutz Lilian and Xiaoqing Zhou show there has been a major slowdown in commodity markets since 2011.

Though the demand boom in Asia has been “persistent”, the role of increased supply in

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