Paper outlines methods for creating country-specific banking crisis prediction models
Approach out-performs traditional early-warning models, researchers argue
A working paper published by the National Bank of Belgium presents a means of specifying parameters that are suited to a particular country when using cross-country data to predict banking crises.
The model is presented in Does one size fit all at all times? The role of country specificities and state dependencies in predicting banking crises, by Stijn Ferrari and Mara Pirovano.
The authors say they have evolved a "novel yet intuitive methodology to compute country-specific and state-dependent
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