A working paper published by the Central Bank of Chile in August studies the factors behind sharp changes in capital flows, finding that debt is the most important determinant.

The authors, Kristin Forbes and Francis Warnock, analyse data on gross movements of capital in and out of 50 emerging and developed countries over the period 1980–2009. The paper finds that 80% of inward flows and 70% of outward are primarily caused by changes in debt flows. These debt dynamics, the authors say, are