ECB paper looks at professional inflation forecasters
No statistically significant evidence of some forecasters being worse than others, researcher says
A working paper published by the European Central Bank finds that the institution’s survey of professional forecasters does not include any who are consistently significantly better or worse than others.
In Forecast performance in the ECB SPF: ability or chance? Aidan Meyler looks at data from 20 years of the survey of professional forecasters, which has been conducted for 20 years.
The paper develops an approach first used in a 2012 paper by D’Agostino et al to investigate a similar survey
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